从战略模糊到战略清晰——奥巴马全球战略调整与中美关系

Obama’s Global Strategic Adjustment and Sino-U.S. Relations——From Ambiguous Strategies to Explicit Strategies

冷战结束后,美国成为世界唯一的超级大国,拥有其他任何国家都难以匹敌的实力,其国际地位和安全形势达到了历史上最好的时期。尽管美国实力呈现相对衰落态势,但其优势并未发生质的变化。美国的实力优势决定了其冷战结束以来全球战略的基本精神始终未变,那就是致力于维持美国的霸权地位,包括三个核心目标,即维护安全、扩展经济和推进民主。冷战结束后历任总统对美国全球战略的重大调整都坚持这一霸权战略,尽管存在表述方式和战略目标优先次序的变化。需要指出的是,冷战后历任美国总统对美国全球战略的调整仍存在一个重大且可能是危险的趋势,即霸权战略确立之初的战略灵活性和战略模糊性正逐渐丧失;换句话说,冷战结束后美国全球战略的调整正日益聚焦中国及中国所在的亚太地区,这一趋势极有可能在奥巴马第二任期内得以延续,并在很大程度上影响中美关系的发展。

The end of the Cold War made the United States the only superpower of the world, with the prowess unmatched in the world, and its international status and security situation reaching the peak of its history. Although its prowess is relatively declining, its supremacy in the world has not substantially changed. Hence, the essential spirit of its post-Cold War global strategy has never changed, i.e., its commitment to maintaining the U.S. superpower status, which includes three core targets: maintaining security, expanding economy and pushing for democracy. All adjustments of global strategy by the post-Cold War U.S. presidents were coherent in this hegemonic strategy, despite different expressions and priorities of strategic goals. Notwithstanding, all those adjustments left with a critical and dangerous tendency in common, i.e., the strategic ambiguity and flexibility are diminishing. In other words, the post-Cold War U.S. strategic adjustments are increasingly concentrating on China and the Asia-Pacific region where China situates. This trend will very likely continue in the second term of Obama presidency and greatly impact Sino-U.S. relations.