南昌地区风沙化土地风沙地貌发育规模和风沙活动预测

THE FORECASTS OF DESERT LANDFORM SCALE AND SHIFTING SAND ACTION DEGREES IN NANCHANG AREA

本文通过对南昌地区风沙化土地扩展方式,沙源量及人为因素在风沙地貌发育中的作用等方面的分析,初步认为本风沙地貌发育规模不会很大,且目前已接近其顶锋状态。在建立GM(1,1)和方差分析(ANOVA)联合预测模型的基础上,对厚田地区三个月的干旱程度和冬季风沙活动强度进行预测,结果令人满意。

In this article, the difference of expanding form is compared between Nanchang sand-land and desertification areas in northern China. According to some-respects analyses, the landform in Nanchang sand-land can not develop to such a scale as that of desertification areas in northern China. In order to combine the studies with scientific experiments and yield, the dry degrees of every July, August, and September (from 1987 to 1935), and the levels of shifting sand action in half a year of winter (from 1987 to 1995) are forecasted by using GM ( 1 , 1 ) model and ANOVA,and the results are very satisfactary.