多指标约束的兰州市生态适度人口测度

Study on Eco-optimum Population in Lanzhou City Using Multi-objective Constraint

在GIS支持下,从用地空间、可供水量、绿地指标、生态足迹和生态敏感性分区5个方面测算了兰州市的生态适度人口与最大人口规模。兰州市生态适度人口规模为249.46万-432.82万,生态环境和用地空间对兰州市人口容量规模的限制作用较其它因素强烈,2010年市域总人口已超过适度人口规模。

Taking Lanzhou City as a case, integrated assessments of sensitivity to water erosion, river buffer, geological hazard and its spatial distribution in Lanzhou City have been done by GIS spatial analysis method. Using DEM, land use map and investigation data, the article cal- culated and assessed quantity and spatial differentiation of available land of Lanzhou. On these basis, the authors adopts scenarios analysis to explore the city＇ s appropriate scale and maximal ecological population scale from the aspects of land space, water supply, grass - land norms, GDP, ecological footprint and eco - environmental sensitivity. The results show that the local ecological optimum population scale is expected to amount to around 2.49 -4.32 million. The calculation outcome reflects that to the population scale of city ecological environment and proper land space＇ s restriction are sharper than else factors＇. The urban population has exceeded the scale of ecological optimum population in 2010.