从合作博弈视角探讨中国股市改革

Revamping China’s Stock Market: a cooperative game perspective

从2012诺奖得主沙普利的合作博弈视角,运用详实的数据和实证分析的方法对中国股市利益博弈失衡问题展开深入分析,我们认为中国股市"牛短熊长"、长期低迷的根源在于其利益分配严重失衡,主要表现为融资机制尤其是IPO和再融资制度存在缺陷,市场监管体系不够完善,上市公司缺乏分红的动力和压力,致使中小投资者的利益得不到保障。因此,改革的重中之重是要建立合作博弈的利益分配格局和均衡的利益分配机制,从改革新股发行制度、改进再融资制度、完善市场监管体系、促进上市公司分红等方面推进中国股市改革,以重建中国股市利益分配合作博弈的格局。

Using collected data and the cooperative game theory developed by the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics laureate Lloyd Stowell Shapley, this paper analyzes the imbalance in profit allocation in China＇s stock market. China＇s stock market has long been in a bearish mood and is plagued by a short-bull-long-bear feature. We believe the cause lies in severe profit allocation imbalance, which is manifest in institutional loopholes in IPO and secondary financing as well as a weak regulatory framework. Listed companies lack the pressure and incentive in paying out dividends, causing the smaller investors to lose out. Therefore, the most imperative move is to establish a balanced and fair profit allocation framework and mechanism, change the IPO system, optimize the secondary financing rules and the regulatory framework, and encourage the listed companies to pay dividends. Thus, China＇s stock market can return to a cooperative game scenario.