人民币汇率变动对中国农产品出口影响及对策的实证研究——基于2005年至2011年数据的统计分析

An Empirical Study on the Effect of Exchange Rate of RMB on Chinese Agricultural Products——The Statistic test based on the data from 2005~2011

采用Eviews6.0软件,利用ADF检验以及Granger因果关系检验,考查2005至2011年中国农产品出口额与名义汇率和实际汇率的关系。实证结果显示:人民币名义汇率对农产品出口影响不大,而实际汇率更能影响农产品出口。格兰杰因果分析说明:人民币汇率贬值,农产品出口额会显著增加,而人民币升值,农产品出口额会显著减少。最后在对实证结果进行解释的基础上,从国家层面对应对汇率和应对农产品出口提出建议,从农产品自身层面建议加强成本控制、优化农产品结构、利用优惠政策和提高农产品质量。

Based on the data from 2005 to 2011, using the software of Eviews6. 0 and by the method of ADF and Granger test , the article testify the relationship between the export value of Chinese agricultural products and the nominal and real exchange rate of RMB, The results show that while the nominal exchange rate of RMB has rare influence on the export value of Chinese agricultural products, the real exchange rate of RMB has impact on it, The Granger test explain that the exchange depreciation of RMB make the increasing export value of Chinese agricultural products. If the exchange rate of RMB increases, the export value of Chinese agricultural products will remarkably decrease. Finally, the article gives de- tailed advice by the level of the country and the farmer themselves.