摘要
为实现供水管网经济、可靠、科学的优化调配用水量,给出一种基于改进单指数平滑预测方法,该预测方法引进"追踪信号"来反应时间序列的变化,通过重新修正平滑常数a以建立改进单指数预测模型。以东北某城市日用水量为原始数据进行了实际预测,模型精度检验的结果满足Y市用水量要求,该预测模型应用于Y市的日用水量预测,为Y市供水优化调配提供有效依据。
To economically, reliably and scientifically implement optimal operation of water de- mand, the improved single-exponent smoothness method was presented based on tracking signal to reflect the changes in time series. By re-fix the smoothing constant a to establish the improved single-exponent smoothness predictive models. The model is applied to a practical project in a city of north east for daily water demands forecasting by checking up the precision, the model is proved to be feasible and effec- tive. Application of this high-precision method to the urban daily water demand and forecast of Y city shows that it is an effective warranty for the city＇ s water optimal arrangement.
出处
《低温建筑技术》
2013年第6期141-142,共2页
Low Temperature Architecture Technology
基金
黑龙江省教育厅科研资助项目(12511440)
关键词
供水管网
优化调配
用水量预测
water supply networks
optimal operation
water demand forecast
