我国股市与居民储蓄变动关系的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of Variable Relations of China's Stock Market and the Household Savings

从当前我国经济发展趋势来看,居民储蓄余额和股市交易总额均呈上升趋势。这两者之间的变动关系也成为人们争议的焦点。我们通过对居民储蓄余额与沪深股市交易额的月度数据建立VAR模型,实证分析了两者之间的相关性,表明我国股市的确具有分流储蓄存款的效应。

From China＇s current economic development trend, the total balance of household savings and stock market is on the rise. Changes in the relationship between the two has become the focus of dispute. We established the VAR model by using monthly data on Residents＇ savings and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock trading volume, an empirical analysis of the correlation between the two, indicates that China＇s stock market has the effect of diverting savings deposits.