地势起伏度对三峡库区人口及经济发展水平的影响

IMPACT OF RELIEF AMPLITUDE ON POPULATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE THREE GORGES RESERVIOR

在1∶10万三峡库区DEM的基础上,采用窗口分析等方法提取了地形起伏度,利用均值变点分析方法确定三峡库区地势起伏度的最佳统计单元是0.15km2。首次绘制了基于最佳统计单元的三峡库区地势分布图,确定地形起伏度是影响三峡库区人口分布和经济发展的重要因素之一。在系统分析了三峡库区地形起伏度的分布规律基础上,选择城镇化率、农村居民恩格尔系数、经济密度、人口密度等指标,定量揭示地形起伏度对人口和经济发展的影响。结果显示三峡库区的地形总体以起伏山地为主。地形起伏度与人口密度、经济密度呈极显著的负相关,地势起伏度大的区域,人口密度较小,经济发展相对滞后,农村居民生活相对贫困。地势起伏度小的区域,人口密度较大,经济相对发达。这对认知山区人口和经济的空间格局,将三峡库区资源开发利用以及产业布局在适度的地势起伏度范围,对于有效进行三峡库区资源开发、促进区域经济效益最大化具有重要的参考价值。

The method of window analysis was used to obtain the relief amplitude of Three Gorges Reservoir based on 1：100,000 DEM. Through mean change-point analysis method,the optimal statistical unit of relief amplitude is determined as 0.15 km2 in the Three Gorges Reservoir. It is the first time to draw the relief amplitude map of the Three Gorges Reservoir based on optimum statistical unit, and relief amplitude is identified as one of the important factors influencing the population distribution and the economic development in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Based on analyzing the distribution of relief amplitude, four factors such as urbanization, Engel＇s coefficient of rural residents, economic density and population density were chosen to reveal quantitatively how the relief amplitude influences the population and economic development. The results show that the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was mainly covered by undulating mountains,accounting for 63.83% of the total area. The flat dam,platform and hills accounted for 36.17% of the total area. Through correlation analysis, it is found that the relief amplitude had a significant negative correlation to economic density and population density with a correlation coefficient of 0. 883. The relationship between relief amplitude, population and economic development was studied by mathematic modeling. Through comparative analysis of different models and apparent test for parameters, the optimum models and the analysis results were as follows. The association between relief amplitude and population density was better modelled by logarithmic model Y=- 306. 051n（x）＋ 1746.2 （R2 =0. 7164）. The association between relief amplitude and economic density was better modelled by exponential line Y= 2820.2e-0.0156X（R2 =0. 7460）. There was a smaller population density,lower economic development level in the region with high relief amplitude,where rural residents lived in poverty relatively. There was a higher population density,higer economic developement level in the region with low relief amplitude. To some extent,relief amplitude restricted the development of regional economy, playing a significant impact on population distribution. Correctly understanding the impact of relief amplitude on the spatial pattern of the mountain population and economic, scientifically mastering the quantitative relationship between relief amplitude and economic development,and moderately planning resource utilization and industry ditribution in relief amplitude range, would have important reference value and guidance significance to exert the regional advantage of the Three Gorges Reservoir area fully and promote regional economic benefit.