流域水资源丰富度评价的MFP模型及应用

A MFP MODEL ON BASIN WATER RESOURCES ABUNDANCE ASSESSMENT

水资源系统与许多因素有关,如各种水资源量、人口、社会经济发展指标等,它们共同组成了一个典型的复杂非线性系统。以最大流原理为基础,导出了描述水资源系统的信息动力学演化方程,建立了水资源评价的信息动力学模型,运用信息动力学模型建立了评价标准。该模型无需人为给定参数,客观性强,操作简便。最后运用理论模型对辽西沿海诸河流域水资源丰富度进行评价分析,得到各流域的丰富度状况,并与其它模型评定结果做出了比较,结果表明该方法具有较好的合理性和可操作性。由于该模型从一定程度上体现了水资源丰富度系统的演化动力学机理和水资源系统时空演变特性。因此,不仅在评价上有较大的优越性,在水资源丰富度发展变化状态的预测上也具有潜力。

The development of water system will directly affect the entire economic and social sustainable development. The characteristics of water system are open, evolutionary, emergence and non-linear. The water resources are related with many factors, such as a variety of water resources, population,social and economic development indicators. They together form a typical complex nonlinear system. In this paper, based on informational reality and maximum flux principle （MFP） ,a new dynamical equation that controls the generation and evolution of the water resources system was got, and the informational dynamic model of water resources system was built. Based on this model,evaluation criteria was derived. As a model with ontological foundation, the dynamic process was objective and easy to operate, without a prior given parameters artificially. With the neural network provided by MATLAB, the dynamic equation that controled patterns could be resolved. According to the process that the elements reached stable through self-emerging, the numerical simulation method of new theoretical framework could be established. Therefore, the new model could give evaluation about the structure state of any complex system, including the water resources system. The paper finally made an assessment on the abundance of various basin water resources in the Liaoxi Coastal River. The ~ value of all levels of the standard was studied. The water resources abundance standard could be divided into five grades according to the corresponding standard, which were very rich, rich, medium, dry, and extremely dry. Base on the ~e value of the standard, water resources on basin 4 was extremely dry,basin 1,2,3 were dry,and basin 5,6,7,8,9 were medium. The assessment results were compared with other models and the results showed that the method was reasonable and practicable. Because the model reflects the evolution of the kinetic mechanism in water resources systems and it also reflects the space-time evolution of the properties, it has advantages in the evaluation of water resources abundance and it can also be used for the predictions of water resources abundance.