柱形爆炸容器安全概率的区间估计

Confidence interval estimation of security probability of cylindrical explosion vessel

针对柱形爆炸容器安全评判问题,采用数值模拟方法对容器爆心截面外壁径向变形量进行了计算。与以往确定性计算结果不同,在计算过程中考虑了主要计算参数的随机性,并结合Monte-Carlo方法对该参数进行了抽样,然后计算获得了容器径向变形量的随机样本。应用统计方法对该样本进行了分析,并给出了容器安全概率置信区间的估计方法。以某柱形容器径向变形量数值模拟为例,分析了径向变形量的统计规律,并给出了该容器的安全概率及其置信区间。从而初步建立了对爆炸容器安全评判问题进行统计分析的一般方法。

Aimed to the security estimation of cylindrical explosion vessels, the radial distortion at the center section of the vessel was numerically calculated. When the initial parameters are set with random errors, the final simulation results change obviously. Some essential parameters are sampled by the Monte-Carlo method, so that the uncertainty of these parameters can be considered in the calculation process, and the results actually are the samples of the radial distortion of the vessel. Based on the statistical analysis of the samples, the confidence interval estimation method for the security prob ability of cylindrical explosion vessels was proposed. The validity and accuracy of the method were al- so illustrated by examples.