当前我国超额货币供给下的潜在通货膨胀压力

The Potential Inflationary Pressure of China under the Excess Monetary Supply

长期的超额货币供给积累了高额货币存量,导致了对中国潜在通货膨胀压力的普遍担忧。在有效需求不足的宏观背景下,过快增长的货币供给所增加的有支付能力需求的一部分沉淀于储蓄状态,并未全数形成有效需求,因而不会在当期引致与之相对应的严重通货膨胀,但会形成潜在通货膨胀压力的累积。实证研究发现,沉积货币对通货膨胀有显著正向的滞后影响,且影响程度随着沉积货币数量的增加而减弱。针对我国目前潜在通货膨胀压力较高的实际,为实现调整经济结构、转变经济发展方式的总体目标,本文提出了在维持经济7%以上增长的同时将物价上涨率控制在4%左右的宏观调控指标及保证这一目标实现的政策建议。

The high stock of money has widespread led to concern about the potential inflationary pressures. This paper argues that in the context of insufficient effective demand, excessive money growth does not cause inflation, but may accumulate monetary causing potential inflationary pressures to the future. The empirical research shows that cumulative monetary has significantly positive lag effect on inflation and the impact signif- icantly weakened. The potential inflationary pressures remain high, aiming to achieve the adjustment of eco- nomic structure, transfomaing the mode of economic development, we suggest a macrocconomic policy goals of more than 7% in economic growth, while the inflation rate should be controlled under 4%, and give some oolicv recommendations.