加工贸易框架下进出口对汇率变动的响应特征——基于古诺双寡头模型的探讨

Influence of Exchange Rate Change on Export & Import in Framework of Proceeding Trade: Based on Cournot Duopoly Model

通过构建一个包含跨国加工模式和本土生产模式的双寡头模型可以分析"加工贸易"框架下汇率变动对进出口的影响。模型推导发现加工国货币相对消费终端国货币贬值,则加工国对消费终端国加工商品的出口值将上升,从消费终端国进口同类商品值(中间品)也将上升,且出口对汇率变动的反应滞后于进口对汇率变动的反应。商品的汇率弹性与商品的自身属性相关,较大的出口汇率弹性对应较大的进口弹性。加工贸易框架下,虽然加工商品出口的汇率弹性要小于同类商品(中间品)进口的汇率弹性,但如果进口值相对出口值的比率较小,则加工国本币贬值依然改善其国际收支状况。文中以中国和意大利纺织品贸易类别细分的数据对上述模型推导的结论进行了实证检验。

The paper studies on influence of exchange rate change on expert and import in framework of pro- ceeding trade through Cournot duopoly model comparing overseas production and domestic production. We find that currency depreciation of proceeding country will increase both exports and imports of proceeded products of proceeding country while reaction of exports to exchange rate change lags behind that of imports. Characters of product give rise to the elasticity and a large export elasticity leads to a large import elasticity. Meanwhile, the import elasticity of intermediary products is larger than exports elasticity of proceeded prod- ucts. Given the small import to expert ratio, the currency depreciation of proceeding country can better his trade balance. Finally, We make an empirical research with Sino- Italian textile trade data to support our mgtanents.