城镇化与服务业集聚——基于系统耦合互动的观点

Urbanization and Service Industry Agglomeration——A View Based on System Coupling Interaction

本文建立了一个城镇化与服务业集聚互动发展的耦合与协调模型,以31个省份2002—2011年的面板数据为样本,测算了二者互动发展的耦合度和协调度,并从空间、时间两个维度进行了对比,同时对西部各省份予以了分析。研究发现:中国城镇化与服务业集聚耦合互动状况整体不佳,二者仍处在磨合阶段,东部地区失衡现象更为突出;失衡的原因具有省际差异,总体上东部地区表现为服务业集聚发展不足,中西部地区也已由城镇化相对滞后转变为服务业集聚发展滞后;城镇化与服务业集聚的耦合互动具有逐步加强的时变特点和分布的空间变迁特点,二者已在少数省份形成了协同发展的局面。鉴于此,本文认为在深化推进新型城镇化与新型工业化道路过程中,应当加强对城镇化与服务业集聚互动发展的战略认识,在制定向服务业适度倾斜的城镇化产业配套政策同时,注重城镇化与服务业集聚发展相对滞后方面的提升,并在新一轮西部大开发过程中予以实施。

Based on the coupling and coordination models and 2002--2011 panel data of 31 provinces, this paper analyzed the interactive development of urbanization and service industry agglomeration on the prospects of space and time dimensions. It found that firstly the coupling interation situation between China＇s urbanization and service industry agglomeration as a whole is poor, both eastern, central and western regions are in the run-in phase, and the imbalance of eastern region is more serious. Secondly, the reason of imbalance is that service industry agglomeration lags behind urbanization, but it differs in provinces. Thirdly, coupling interaction between urbanization and service industry agglomeration has characteristics of a gradual strengthen time trend and changing spatial distribution and a few provinces has formed a joint development of the situation. Finally, relevant policy recommendations were given.