中国出口退税结构调整及其对“两高一资”行业经济—环境影响的案例研究

The Structural Adjustment of China’s Export Tax Rebat and Its Economic and Environmental Impacts on the Highly Polluting,Highly Energy and Resource Consuming Industries

本文在分析中国出口退税水平、结构变化情况基础上,遵循"贸易政策→经济活动→环境影响"链式反应逻辑,构建了适用于行业产品分析的可计算局部均衡模型,量化评估中国出口退税政策调整对重点"两高一资"行业的经济—环境影响。研究发现,近年来"两高一资"行业产品出口退税水平已被调减至平均水平之下;这一调整通过控制"两高一资"行业产品出口量,抑制其生产规模,减少了污染排放;虽然该措施使得中国生产者剩余有所下降,但政府税收收入上升,国家净福利增加;各行业多种污染物排放量的削减表现出行业间差异与行业内部差异,不同的部门"以降减出口退税手段减排污染物的出口额损失代价"差异较大。研究表明,中国出口退税税率和税目结构仍存在继续优化的空间:短期内,应尽快取消钢铁制品、其他合金钢等行业产品的出口退税;中长期,应逐步取消皮革制品、纸制品、化工橡胶塑料制品、纺织、服装、其他矿产品、铁及非合金钢、不锈钢、其他贱金属(有色金属)及其制品等部门产品的出口退税。

Following the chain reaction logic of ＂trade policy-economic activity-environmental impact＂, the present research quantitatively analyzes the level and the structural changes of the export tax rebate adjustment of China, and its economic and environmental impacts on the highly polluting, highly energy and resource consuming industries. The analytical framework is based on a computable partial equilibrium model constructed with tailored environmental soft link. The simulation suggests that, the export tax rebate level for the highly polluting, highly energy and resource consuming industries was reduced to below the average level in recent years, which helped to curb the export and production of the highly polluting, highly energy and resource consuming industries, and then reduce the pollution emission. Although the Chinese producer surplus experienced some loss, the governmental tax revenue was increased which strengthened the net welfare, various pollution reduction in different industries showed both inter-industry and intra-industry differences, and there was a large difference among industries in the export loss from unit pollution reduction. Currently, China＇s export tax rebate system is still in need of further optimization. In the short term, the export tax rebates should be cancelled for products from iron and steel, other alloy steel, among other sectors. In the long run, the export tax rebates for products from leather, paper, chemical rubber and plastic, textiles, clothing, other mineral, iron and non-alloy steel, stainless steel, and other base metals should be eliminated completely to further improve environmental performance of the Chinese export tax rebate system.