中国经济发展趋势与商业银行的机遇和挑战

The Trend of China's Economy and the Opportunity and Challenge of Commercial Banks

本文在借鉴新经济增长理论对中国经济增长动力研究成果的基础上,认为中国面临着资源环境约束、人口红利减弱、制度改革瓶颈等多重因素影响,正处于工业化中期向后期过渡阶段,潜在经济增长率将呈缓慢下降趋势。同时,中国自身仍具有区域梯次发展空间、城镇化进程加快、消费潜力巨大等有利条件,可支持中国成功跨越中等收入陷阱。中国经济保持平稳健康成长,对商业银行发展和转型带来巨大机遇;但随着增速回落到中速区间,商业银行将面临成长速度放缓、盈利能力下降、资产质量管理严峻等挑战。

Based on the research of the new theory of economic growth on the power of China＇s economic growth, this paper holds that China is facing the problrms such as resources and environment constraints, population bonus decrease, bottlenecks of system reform, etc., and China＇s industrialization is in transition process from the middle stage to the final stage. China＇s potential economic growth rate will decline slowly. Meanwhile, China still has the advantages that all regions are at different developmental levels, the urbanization process is accelerating and the consumption potential is tremendous, which will help China cross middle-income trap successfully. That China＇s economy maintains steady and healthy growth will bring commercial banks huge opportunities to develop and transform. When the economic growth rate decreases to a medium range, however, commercial banks will face severe challenges that the growth rate and profitability slow down, and the quality management of assets is troublesome.