宏观调控对住房按揭贷款行为影响的有效性分析

The Effectiveness of the Impacts of Macroeconomic Regulation and Control on Housing Mortgage Loan Behavior

本文通过建立线性回归模型和Logistic二元回归模型,从微观角度研究宏观调控对住房按揭贷款行为影响的有效性。研究结果表明,中央银行调整贷款基准利率对居民住房按揭贷款首付比例选择有显著影响,贷款基准利率每提高1%,会使住房按揭贷款首付比例提高1.62%;但长、短期贷款基准利差的变化并不会显著影响居民住房按揭贷款期限的选择。同时,借款人性别、教育程度、供养人数、家庭收入、房屋价值、区域等因素对居民住房按揭贷款首付比例的选择有显著影响;贷款金额、家庭收入、借款人年龄、教育程度、区域等因素对居民住房按揭贷款期限的选择有显著影响。

By building a linear regression model and a binary logistic regression model, this paper analyses the effectiveness of the impacts of macroeconomic regulation and control on housing mortgage loan behavior. The results show that the benchmark interest rate of loan, adjusted by the central bank, will significantly impact the resident＇ s choice of the initial down-payment ra- tio of mortgage loan. The 1% increase in benchmark interest rate will cause 1.62% increase in initial down-payment ratio. But the change in interest rate spread between long-term loan and short-term loan doesn＇t significantly impact the resident＇s choice of mortgage loan term. Meanwhile, borrower＇s gender, education degree, number of raised person, family income, house value, area, etc. significantly impact the choice.