大学生就业指导中风险决策的实践与模拟

Practice and Simulation of the Risk Decision in Guidance of College Students' Employment

为帮助大学生在就业前景不确定时做出更合理的决策,基于风险决策理论探讨了大学生的就业指导框架,并通过蒙特卡洛法来模拟其实践效果。首先,拓展出"期望机会成本"的概念,提出了"期望剩余—期望效用—最大可能性—硬币"的就业决策标准。其次,分别从大学生决策和就业指导的角度构建了4步决策分析框架和6步指导框架。最后,以对某毕业生的就业决策指导为例,展示了利用风险决策来指导大学生就业的实践与模拟效果。

In view of the uncertainty of college students’ employment,a framework of college students’ employment guidance is developed based on the risk decision theory.First of all,the economic concept opportunity cost is extended to the expectation opportunity cost.And then,a risk decision criterion for college students’ employment is explored,which is called the ＂expected surplus-maximum likelihood-coin＂ criterion.Based on the criterion,a four-step framework for students’ risk decision is constructed,and a six-step framework for the universities’ employment instruction is constructed as well.Finally,to test the effect of the framework,a case practice is discussed,and the Monte Carlo method is utilized to simulate the effect.