摘要
本文提出一个应用贝叶斯网络模型对宏观区域政策与高新技术产业政策使用效果进行情景分析的决策框架。中国高新技术产业开发区的建立和发展很大程度上依赖于政府政策,然而先前对影响中国高新区发展因素的研究主要集中在禀赋因素,如固定资产投资额或从业员工人数等,缺乏对制度性因素如省级高新区"升级"成国家级这一制度变迁效应的实证考察。对此,本文借助贝叶斯网络静态情景分析方法探讨制度因素与高新区成长之间的关系,结果显示:制度因素在中国高新区发展中起到关键作用,省级高新区"升级"政策如果结合加大R&D经费投入将会促进高新区成长。
The study of high - tech zones or science parks is not a fresh topic, but the previous studies have a blank field to fill. Most of these researches focus on the crucial factors of endowments that contribute to the growth of high - tech zones, seldom with the institutional factor. But the institutional factor is crucial for high -tech zones especially in China. Because of this, this paper introduced Bayesian network model to construct the driving mechanism of the growth of high - tech zones and discussed the results of the “upgrade” policy and gave suggestions for future studies. The conclusions showed that the “upgrade” policy evolution combined with the increased input in R＆D are effective for the growth of high - tech zones in China in the long run.
出处
《产经评论》
2013年第3期5-15,共11页
Industrial Economic Review
关键词
贝叶斯网络
情景分析
产业政策
高新区
Bayesian network
scenario analysis
industrial policy
high-tech zone
