河北省人口老龄化趋势预测及对策研究

Prediction of Aging Trend in Hebei Province and Countermeasures

运用Elman神经网络模型对2010—2050年河北省人口数进行预测,经过分析得出,河北省的人口老龄化具有以下几个特征:老年人口规模庞大,增长迅速;老龄化程度超前于河北省的经济发展水平,社会负担沉重;老年人口的高龄化趋势明显;老年人口的性别差异较大;老年人口的分布具有明显的差异性等。根据这些特征为河北省应对人口老龄化提供了一些对策建议。

Elman neural network model is used to make population projections in 2010-2050 of Hebei Province population. After analysis, the aging of Hebei province has the following characteristics: the aging population is of large scale and grows rapidly in recent years;the degree of aging is ahead of the level of economic development in Hebei Province, which leads to a huge burden on the society; the aging trend of the elderly population is insurmountable; there are relatively large gender gap among elderly population; the distribution of the elderly population has significant differences. Based on these characteristics, we offer some countermeasures to deal with the aging population problem in Hebei Province.