人为驱动力和环境压力影响模型应用研究进展

The Research Progress on Application of the Anthropogenic Driving Force and Environmental Impact Model

环境库兹涅茨曲线认为环境压力和经济发展之间呈倒U形关系,研究证实二者之间除了倒U形关系,还出现了同步关系、U形关系和N形关系。环境库兹涅茨曲线不能全面反映环境压力和经济增长的量化关系。IPAT等式表示环境压力的影响是人口、富裕度、技术的共同作用,而ImPACT等式表示环境压力的影响是人口、富裕度、使用强度和技术的乘积。IPAT等式和ImPACT等式表示环境压力的影响与人为驱动力间均成等比例变化关系。STIRPAT模型是一个随机模型,STIRPAT模型和弹性系数的应用,解决了实证分析中如何检验各驱动力变化对环境变化的影响。STIRPAT模型可以分析各种类型人文驱动因子对环境压力的影响。

The Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） postulates an inverted-U-shaped relationship between environmental pressure and economic development. The empirical studies of EKC have shown other relationships such as monotone relationship, U-shaped relationship and N-shaped relationship. The Environmental Kuznets Curve fails to comprehensively reflect the quantitative relationship between environmental pressure and economic growth. IPAT identity specifies that environmental impacts are the multiplicative product of three key driving forces ： population, affluence and technology. IMPACT identity specifies that environmental impacts are the muhiplicative product of four key driving forces： population, affluence, consumption and technology. The two identities show proportional changes between anthropogenic driving forces and environmental impacts. The STIRPAT is a stochastic model. The STIRPAT model and elasticity coefficient could explain how the anthropogenic driving forces affect the environmental and the model could analyze the impact of different anthropogenic factors on the environmental pressure. changes,