基于主成分分析法的水资源承载力综合评价——以新疆喀什地区为例

Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on The Principal Component Method——A Case Study of Kashi Area in Xinjiang

随着"打造喀什在中亚南亚经济圈重心地位"发展战略的提出,加快推进经济跨越式和"三化"的发展进程,水资源面临着巨大的压力。本文建立水资源—社会—经济—生态—综合协调系统指标体系,选取了共27个指标,采用主成分分析法研究喀什地区2004～2010年水资源承载力,得出喀什地区随着经济活动的加强,水资源承载力的趋势是越来越低;水-社会-经济-生态复合系统系统之间协同性较弱,加剧了水资源和生态的脆弱性,阻碍了社会经济的发展,使得水资源与社会、经济、生态各系统之间存在非良性循环。要想提高复合系统的耦合关系及实现喀什地区经济的稳定快速发展,应优先提高水资源的利用率和产出率,合理配置和利用水资源,进一步利用节水灌溉等高新节水技术,适度的人类活动与水资源的有序开发。

With accelerating ＂build kashi in central Asia, South Asia economic circle center of gravity position＂ development strategy is put forward, and the development of economy by leaps and bounds and ＂three＂ process is promoted, water resources is facing great pressure. This paper set up water resources - social - economic - ecological index system of comprehensive coordination system, chose a total of 27 indicators, used principal component analysis study of kashi region in 2004 ~ 2010. The result is that the trend of the water resources carrying capacity is lower with the strengthening of economic activity in kashi region, and Water - social - economic - col- laborative is weaker between complex system of ecology system, witch increased the water resources and ecological vulnerability, hin- dered the development of social economy, made water resources - social, economic and ecological system between non - virtuous cir- cle. To improve the coupling relationship of composite system and to achieve kashi region of steady and fast economic development, pri- ority should be to improve water utilization efficiency and productivity, reasonable allocation and utilization of water resources, to in- crease the use of water - saving irrigation and other high and new water - saving technology, moderate and orderly development of water resources of human activity.