房地产财富效应与中国城镇居民消费不对称性

Real Estate Wealth Effect and Asymmetry of Chinese Urban Residents' Consumption

本文基于消费者效用最大化选择模型,兼顾房地产的抵押信贷效应,综合房屋价格、房屋面积等要素,建立房地产财富效应对居民消费不对称性影响的分析框架。利用1999-2011年的季度数据,实证检验我国房地产财富效应对我国城镇居民消费的作用程度,以及房地产财富效应对我国城镇居民消费影响的不对称性。实证表明,我国房地产财富效应显著,且房地产财富升值阶段的消费变化程度大于房地产财富紧缩阶段的消费变化程度,即我国房地产财富效应具有显著的不对称性;同时,对我国房地产财富升值阶段和紧缩阶段构成的系统VECM估计结果显示,升值和紧缩阶段均具有较好的短期修正机制,对暂时偏离均衡状态的波动也具有较强的调整力度。

Based on the maximization model of consumer utility, taking into account the mort- gage credit effect of the real estate, as well as the factors of housing prices and housing areas, we have established a asymmetry analysis framework of the real estate wealth effect. Using the quarterly data of the period 1999 -2011, we test the wealth effect of real estate on China＇ s urban residents＇ consumption, as well as the asymmetry of real estate wealth effect. The empirical results show that China＇ s real estate wealth effect is significantly, and the changes of consumption of rising of real es- tate wealth effect is greater than the stage of decline, that is to say that China＇ s real estate wealth effect has a significant asymmetry. The ECM of the rising and falling stage show a better short-term correction mechanism, and the temporary departure from equilibrium has a strong adjustment efforts.