农村居民消费与收入的动态关系研究——以海南省为例

Dynamic Analysis on Rural Residents' Consumption and Peasant Incomes——A Case Study in Hainan Province

基于海南省1988-2011年农村居民人均消费和人均收入数据,运用向量自回归模型考察农村居民人均消费与人均收入之间的动态关系,实证结果表明,农村居民人均消费支出和人均收入之间具有显著正相关性,居民人均消费支出有滞后效应。应持续增加农村居民收入,提高现时的农村居民消费支出水平。

This paper uses Vector Autoregressive （VAR） model to ecamine the dynamic relationship between nural residents＇ consumption and peasant incomes, which is based on the time series data of 1988 -2011 year of per capital consump- tion and per capital income of rural residents in Hainan province. The results show that there are significant positive cor- relations between rural resident＇ s per capita consumption expenditure and per capita income, and per capita consumer spending has a lag effect effect. We should continue to increase rural residents＇ income and improve present rural con- sumer spending level.