高考人数见拐点后的高职招生环境考察与预测

Investigation and Prediction of Higher Vocational Enrollment Environment after Infection Point of the Number of College Entrance Examination

通过对我国适龄人口变化趋势的系统考察和2013～2019年全国高考人数的预测,以及目前我国高职院校招生情况的具体分析,揭示了高职院校招生的隐含问题;并针对问题和问题产生的原因,提出了高考人数见拐点后的高职招生应对策略:非学历教育是缓解高考生源危机最主要出路。

Through systematical investigations on sChool-age demographic trends in China and predictions of the number of 2013-2019 national entrance examination candidates, as well as the specific analysis of the enrollment condition in higher vocational colleges in our country, it reveals the potentials problems of enrollment in higher vocational colleges. According to the problems and the reasons of these problems, it puts forward the coping strategies of higher vocational enrollment atter infection of the number of college entrance examination. Non-academic degree education is the main approach for relieving the crisis of entrance examination candidates.