东亚产品内分工对中美贸易顺差影响的分析

On the Influence of East Asian Intra-product Specialization on Sino-US trade surplus

中美贸易顺差形成原因是多方面的,本文主要从东亚产品内分工着手分析东亚产品内分工形成的原因,并分析东亚产品内分工对中美贸易顺差的影响,通过计量经济模型对其影响的程度和稳定性做了实证分析,从而得出东亚产品内分工和中美贸易顺差之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系的结论,并在产品内分工的背景下提出应对中美贸易顺差不断扩大以及贸易摩擦不断增加的对策,即短期内通过在贸易冲突的谈判过程引起美国对原产地的重视,长期内不断实现产业升级彻底解决中美这种结构性贸易顺差。

There are many causes for Sino-US trade surplus. This paper starts with the causes of East Asian Intra-product specialization and analyzes the effects on Sino-US trade surplus produced by East Asian Intraproduct specialization. The conclusion that there is a long-term stable balanced relationship between East Asian Intra-product specialization and Sino-US trade surplus obtained by an econometric model . At last, it proposes some measures that improving American emphasis on rules of origin in short term and achieving industrial upgrading to solve the problem of increasing Sino-US trade surplus and conflicts.