惩罚性关税的多重效应研究——基于GTAP模型的中美光伏产品贸易摩擦分析

The Multiple Effects of Penalty Tariff ——the Study of Sino-US Trade Friction on China's PV Industry Based on GTAP Model

本文通过美国商务部对中国输美的光伏产品征收反倾销关税所引起的贸易摩擦案件的研究,利用GTAP模型就美国该贸易保护措施对我国光伏产业及宏观经济的影响进行模拟分析,结果表明:惩罚性关税具有多重经济效应,不仅对中美两国光伏业的生产、中国光伏业的对外出口和贸易平衡带来了一定的负面冲击,对中国和世界的总福利效益也有不同程度的消极影响。本文针对GTAP的模拟结果,从可持续发展角度提出中国光伏产业的应对策略与贸易政策建议。

This paper takes Sino-US trade friction of crystalline silicon photovohaic cells as a case, employs the GTAP model to make a simulation analysis on how the trade protection measures impacts China＇s PV industry and the macro economy. The simulation results show that the penalty tariff brings about multiple economic effects. It not only causes negative shock on China＇s and US＇ PV output, China＇s PV export and trade balance. On the other side, it also negatively impacts China and the world＇s total welfare. Based on the GTAP simulation and analysis, this paper put forward the trade policy suggestions and strategies of China＇s PV sustainable development.