基于案例推理元胞自动机的土地利用变化模拟——以浙江省仙居县为例

Land Use Change Simulation Based on Case-based Reasoning Cellular Automata:A Case Study of Xianju County in Zhejiang Province

目前,元胞自动机被较多地运用于土地利用/土地覆盖变化的模拟中.由于土地利用/土地覆盖变化受多种因素共同作用,复杂多样,使得元胞自动机在模拟过程中确定转换规则存在困难.为表达隐含在引起土地利用变化的多种因素之间的知识和规律,采用案例推理代替元胞自动机中传统的规则获取方法,对浙江省仙居县1995—2005年间土地利用变化情况进行了模拟,模拟精度达到87%.并对仙居县2015年土地利用变化情况进行了预测,发现该县2015年的建设用地和耕地面积将有所增加.

Abstract： At present, CA is used regularly in simulating land use/cover change. Land use/cover change is a complex phenomenon influenced by many factors, so that CA is difficult to determine the transition rules in the simulation. Instead of the traditional methods in CA, the paper used Case-based Reasoning （CBR） to explain the knowledge and rules among the multi-factors driving the land use change. The land use changes of Xianju County from 1995 to 2005 were simulated, and the simulation accuracy reach to 87 %. By predicting the land use changes of Xianju, it is found that the areas of construction land and farmland will increase in 2015.