安徽省城乡收入差距与农村人口流动关系的实证分析

Rural-urban Income Disparity and Rural Population Flow: an Empirical Analysis in Anhui Province

基于1989-2011年相应统计数据,利用VEC模型对安徽农村人口流动与城乡收入差距的关系进行了研究。研究结果表明,农村人口流动对城乡收入差距产生显著的正向效应,农村人口流动每增加1个百分点,城乡收入差距就会扩大1.95个百分点,并且长期效应大于短期的效应。农村人口流动对城乡收入差距的影响具有时滞性,对以后各期的收入差距造成影响。提出了应提高农村流动人口的科学文化素质,建立农村人才开发机制,合理引导农村人口流动,发展农村产业等政策建议。

Based on the statistics from 1989 to 2011 and the VEC model, this paper sets up an empirical frame of analysing the relationship between rural-urban income disparity and rural population flow in Anhui province. The study indicates that rural migration has significant long-term impacts on rural and urban income disparity, with each 1% increase in rural population flow leads to 1.95% growth in rural-urban income gap. Furthermore, there is an obvious time lag of such influence, rural migration has effects on the income gap during various periods. Therefore, it is essential to enhance the migrants＇ scientific and cultural quality and establish countryside talents development mechanism in order to guide rural population flow and develop rural industry.