中国农村人口空心化影响因素分析:1990-2010

On Factors Influencing Rural Population Hollowing in China:1990-2010

受劳动力尤其是青壮年劳动力快速流向城市的影响,农村人口空心化已成为中国普遍事实且不可逆转趋势。借助线性回归方程、Eviews等方法,利用1990-2010相关统计数据,分析得出城乡产业发展差距、城乡收入差距以及交通因素对农村人口空心化形成均有正向影响,而计划生育政策并不对农村人口空心化有直接影响。因而,可以采取继续推行计划生育政策、增加政府直接补贴、以农业机械化增农业产值、以农业转型促农业现代化等措施解决农村人口空心化问题。

Rural population hollowing has become the general fact and irreversible trend with the fast immigration to urban of labors, especially young laborers. This paper draws a conclusion that the urban-rural industries gap, urban-rural income gap and the traffic factors have positive impacts on the process of rural population hollowing and the family planning policy is not a direct result of rural population hollowing with reference to linear regression equation, Eviews and related statistics from 1990 to 2010. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures to solve the problem of rural population hollowing, including continual implementation of family planning policy, direct government subsidies to increase farmers＇ income, agricultural mechanization to increase agricultural output, agricultural transformation to promote agricultural modernization and so on.