基于季节性指数平滑法的MRO物资预测

Study on MRO Material Forecasting Based on Seasonal Index Smoothing

针对北京京城工业物流有限公司提交的采购订单在时间上不够准确、供应商难以控制生产提前期的问题,设计了较为合理的采购流程。以需求预测信息为基础,将MRO(生产和维修)物资按ABC分类法进行分类,绝大多数的A类MRO物资的需求量都呈现明显的季节性变动的特点,采用季节性指数平滑法对MRO物资进行预测。建立了季节性指数平滑法的预测模型,进行了平滑指数的选择。在此基础上,以2008、2009两年的数据作为历史数据,用季节性指数平滑法进行了2010年的预测,并与实际数据进行了对比分析,误差结果在可以接受的范围内,证明了季节性指数平滑法预测此类MRO物资时的有效性。

In this paper, in view of the problems of Beijing Jingcheng Industrial Logstics Company, we designed a comparatively reasonable purchasing process, according to which, on the basis of the demand forecasting information, we classified the MRO materials using the ABC method. In light that most A-class MRO materials had significant seasonal fluctuation in their demand, we applied the seasonable index smoothing method in their forecasting. Next we formulated the forecasting model based on seasonal index smoothing and selected the smoothing index, on the basis of which we predicted the demand for the material for the year 2010 using the demand data of the years 2008 and 2009, compared the result with the actual data, and found that the error was within acceptable range.