基于多元线性回归模型的河北省物流需求预测实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Logistics Demand Forecasting of Hebei Based on Multi-linear Regression Model

尝试运用多元线性回归模型对河北省物流需求进行预测分析。在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,选取研究指标,并且根据统计对数据的严格要求,选取了1990-2009年河北省统计年鉴上的相关指标作为数据来源,并对数据进行了逐步回归,以消除多重共线性,最后得出回归模型,并对模型进行了相关检验,验证模型是适合进行预测的。最后提出基于货运量是物流需求预测的关键,从三个方面提出加快河北省物流产业发展的政策建议。

In this paper, we attempted to use the multi-linear regression model to forecast and analyze the logistics demand of Hebei. On the basis of previous studies, we selected the suitable research index and then, in accordance with the stringent statistical standards, selected the relevant index in the statistical yearbook of Hebei from 1990 to 2009 as the data source, performed stepwise regression on the data to eliminate multicollinearity, and then obtained the regression model which was proved to be suitable for the forecasting. At the end, we proposed the suggestion to speed up the development of the logistics industry in Hebei on three aspects.