中国婚姻挤压的过去、现在和未来——基于普查数据的时期分析和富余男婴的队列分析

Marriage Squeeze in China: the Past,Present and Future: Based on the Period Analysis of Censuses Data and Cohort Analysis of Excess Male Babies

基于国内外中国婚姻挤压研究的文献综述,对建国以来我国婚姻挤压演变和发展趋势做全面的考察与分析。通过六次人口普查数据的时期分析来考察我国婚姻挤压的演变状况,并对20世纪80年代以来由于出生性别比偏高而出现的富余男婴的队列分析估计未来40～60年中国婚姻挤压的发展趋势;并预见如果未来出生性别比保持2012年水平或者在2030年之后依然偏高,我国剩余男性的数量将会增加,婚姻挤压将会更加严重。

Based on the literature review of studies this study made a comprehensive examination on the on Chinese marriage squeeze at home and abroad, evolution and trend of marriage squeeze in China since the founding of the New China, through the period analysis of six censuses data, research the evo- lution of Chinese marriage squeeze, through the cohort analysis of excess male babies since 1980s, esti-mate the yearly total amount of surplus males in next 40-60 years. The paper concluded that the num-ber of excess males will increase and the marriage squeeze will be more serious if the sex ratio at birth was still as high as in 2012 in the future or the sex ratio at birth is still high after 2030.