沁河中游漫堤洪灾损失预测

Prediction of flood disaster loss of dike overtopping in middle reaches of Qinhe River

为了更好地了解沁河中游漫堤洪水对当地经济的影响。利用GIS软件对沁河中游端氏河口至润城的一些基础资料进行处理,利用内插法,生成洪水淹没区实体地形图。利用损失率计算模型对淹没区内损失状况进行了预评估。沁河遭上游张峰水库入库100年一遇的洪水漫堤时,直接经济损失9 017.58万元,间接经济损失1 623万元。通过对沁河中游洪水漫堤的洪水淹没损失的计算分析,为防洪决策人员及地方管理人员做好人员调度提供科学合理的依据。

In order to better understand the impact of diffusion dike flood on the local economy in mid- stream of Qinhe Rever, the paper used GIS software to process basic data from Duanshi estuary to Runcheng in the middle reaches of Qin River and used interpolation method to generate the topographical map of flood areas. The model of loss rate was used to assess the loss status of flood area. When the river meet the flood of one time per 100 years, the overtopping dike incident can occur and cause the direct e- conomic loss to 90. 1758 million yuan and indirect economic loss to 16.23 million yuan. The calculation and analysis of dike flood loss in the midstream of Qinhe River will provide rational basis for policy mak- ers and river supervisors to do staff scheduling so as to avoid disaster.