陕北地区供用水结构变化及需水量预测

Water supply structure change and water demand forecast in northern Shaanxi

陕北地区水资源短缺,随着能源化工基地的建设,供需矛盾日益尖锐。本文通过分析陕北地区的水资源及其可利用量分布规律,以及1980-2010年间的供用水结构变化规律,根据省市相关规划目标及行业用水标准,预测了该地区未来水平年的需水量。结果是陕北地区2020年和2030年的需水量分别为19.95亿m3和27.65亿m3。因此现阶段16亿m3的水资源可利用量不能满足陕北地区的未来需水要求。

The water resources in northern Shaanxi is shortage, along with the energy and chemical in- dustry base construction, the contradiction between water supply and demand is getting more and more sharp. This paper analyzed water resources and its availability distribution regularity in northern Shaanxi and the change laws of water consumption and supply from 1980 to 2010. According to the relevant plan- ning goal and various industry water standard, it forecasted water demand of the area in future. Result shows that water demand in 2020 and 2030is respectively 1. 995 billion m3 and 2. 765 billion m3 in north- ern Shaanxi. So the available water resources of 1.6 billion m3 at the present stage cant meet the future requirement.