大气CO_2浓度变化与全球气候变化关系初步探讨

An Preliminary Analysis on the Relationship between CO_2 Concentrations and Global Climate Change

2007年IPCC公布的第四次评估报告AR4指出:过去50 a观测到的地球平均温度升高很可能(90%以上)是由人类活动引起的,其中主要是人类活动引起的温室气体排放的增加.而地质气候记录证明,早在人类排放能够影响大气以前的CO2浓度变化均不同程度地滞后于气温变化.地质时期CO2浓度的波动是跟随气候变化而变化,是被大气温度驱动的结果,而非相反的CO2驱动温度变化.将现在全球变暖完全归因于人类排放CO2的增加,无法解释1940—1978年的降温事件.通过更长尺度的对比研究可以发现,现在气候是处于全新世变干变冷的大趋势之中,即使现在全球略有变暖,也只是处于变干变冷大趋势中的次级变暖波动.将近代全球气候变暖片面夸大归因于人类活动排放温室气体,而忽略了自然因素的贡献,其依据显得缺乏科学说服力,其做法不免有些令人担忧.

The fourth IPCC （UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ） assessment report-AR4 in 2007, insisted that the rise of observed earth＇s average temperature over the past 50 years was very likely （90%） caused by human activities, among which the increasing of greenhouse gases emissions by human being is the main factor. By analyzing the geological records in this study, we found that the fluctuation of CO2 concentration was the result, but not the cause of climate changes instead, and CO2 concentration was varying according to air temperature. During the historical period human being has released much CO2 into the atmosphere. At the same time, the temperature also increased, both of which might be coincident. The theory that the global warming was due to the relea-sing of CO2 cannot explain the fact that temperature decrease during some periods of modem human time. Comparing to the long term climate change, we can see that modern global warming is just a warm period within the long-time climatic fluctuation, showing that the global warming has no connec-tion to the concentration of CO2. It could be wrong to ignore natural factors and simply attribute the global warming to human activities.