某兵工厂职工肿瘤死亡率的变化与趋势预测

Variation of the Death Rate for Cancers and Its Prediction for an Ordnance Factory

采用长期肿瘤死亡登记资料 ,分析了某兵工厂 42年职工肿瘤死亡率的变化。 1 95 6～ 1 997年肿瘤粗死亡率为 73 98/ 1 0万 ,占总死亡 2 9 9% ;1 974～ 1 985年与 1 986～ 1 997年肿瘤标化死亡率分别为6 9 77/ 1 0万、 1 2 8 77/ 1 0万 ,略低于全国同期肿瘤死亡水平。主要肿瘤为胃、食管、肝、肺癌。根据肿瘤死亡信息建立的灰色系统理论模型 ,对 1 998～ 2 0 1 0年肿瘤死亡趋势做出区间预测 ,肿瘤死亡随时间推移而升高 ,到 2 0 1 0年肿瘤死亡率预计为 2 98 2 7/ 1 0万 ,肝、肺癌出现迅速升高 ,胃、食管癌亦有上升。

The variations of death rate for cancers of workers in an ordnance factory in 42 years based on long term registration data were analyzed.From 1956 to 1997,the crude death rate for cancers was 73 98/10 5,which occupied 29 9% of the total death.The standardized death rates for cancers from 1974 to 1985 and from 1986 to 1997 were 69 77/10\+5 and 128 77/10 5 respectively,which were slightly lower than the nations level.The main cancers were cancers of stomach,esophagus,liver and lung.According to the theoretical model of grey system established from cancer information,an interval death tendency for cancers was predicted for 1998～2013.The result indicated that the death rate for cancers would increase up to year 2010～ It is estimated that the death rate for cancers would be 298 27/10 5.Liver and lung cancers would increase rapidly and the stomach and esophagus cancers would also increase steadily.