摘要
1668年郯城8(1/2)级地震前120年鲁南周围形成M_s≥3/4地震围空区,近百年来该区再次形成类似的空区。本文对两次空区形成条件及其动态演化过程进行了对比分析。认为两个空区的空间尺度、时间长度及地理位置大体相似;但它们与地震活动期、幕及强震主体活动区的关系却明显不同,结合对鲁南空区地震趋势的预测及近期地震活动态势的剖析。初步认为,未来百年内鲁南空区发生8级以上地震的可能性甚小。
120 years before the 1668 Tancheng earthquake with M = 8.5, there had formed a seismicgap of Ms≥ 4(3/4) around south Shandong province, and a similar gap was again formed in that area in recent 100 years. The formation conditions of both gaps and their dynamic evolutionary processes have been compared and analyzed here. It is deemed that the space dimension, time length and geographical position of both gaps are generally the same, but their relations with the seismic activity period, episode and main activity area of strong earthquakes are obviously different according to the foreca ting of the seismic tendency of south Shandong gap and analysis on recent state of seismic activities. It is preliminaly deemed that the possibility for the occurrence of earthquakes with M>8 in the south Shandong gap in 100 years is very rare.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第4期43-48,56,共7页
Earthquake
