个人所得税改善中国收入分配了吗——基于对1997—2011年微观数据的动态评估

Has the Personal Income Tax Improved China's Income Distribution? A Dynamic Assessment of the 1997-2011 Micro Data

利用微观住户调查数据考察1997年以来中国个人所得税的收入分配效应,研究发现:1997—2005年,在税制保持不变而居民收入增长时期,个税累进性逐年下降,但是由于平均有效税率上升,个税的收入分配效应仍在增强。2006—2011年,在税制改革时期,尽管三次免征额提高和2011年的税率层级调整提升了个税累进性,但同时降低了平均有效税率,恶化了个税的收入分配效应。不同收入人群的纳税份额和平均税负变动迥异,中等收入阶层是税制不变时期个税收入增加的主要负担者,也是免征额提高时税负降低的主要受益者。与发达国家相比,我国个税累进性较高,但平均税率偏低,导致个税政策调节收入分配的作用有限,这与当前居民收入水平和政府征税能力有关。因此,个税改革不能一蹴而就,完善税收征缴能力,同时降低流转税的税率,是当务之急。

This study uses the micro household survey data to examine the income distribution effects of China's personal income tax since 1997.The results show that in 1997-2005 when the tax system remained unchanged and the residents' income went up,the income tax progressivity showed a downward tendency over the years.However,due to the increase of average effective tax rates (AETRs),the distribution effects of personal income tax continued to expand.And in 2006-2011when the tax system reform was underway,the successive increases in the tax exemption limit and hierarchical adjustments of tax rates improved the income tax progressivity,while reducing the average effective tax rates and worsening the distribution effects of personal income tax.Different groups of people had drastically different tax payment shares and average tax burdens, such that the middle-income class became the main undertakers of increased personal income tax revenue during the period when the tax system remains unchanged,as well as the main beneficiaries from reduced tax burden due to the increase in the tax exemption limit.As compared with developed countries,China has a higher personal tax progressivity and a lower average tax rate,which have led to a limited role of personal income tax policies in the regulation of income distribution.This has something to do with the residents' income level and the government's tax capacity.Therefore,there is no once-and-for-all solution to the personal income tax reform.For now,it is imperative for us to increase the tax collection capacity while lowering the turnover tax rates.