摘要
研究城市生活污水排放量,有利于解决城市周边的水环境污染问题,实现水资源的可持续利用。运用1986-2010年城市生活污水排放量数据建立一系列不同时间尺度的灰色GM(1,1)模型,探讨不同时间序列建模对于模型精度的影响。研究表明,距离预测现状年越近,建模时间尺度为15a的模型精度越高,进而对我国2011-2015年城市生活污水排放量进行预测,并与滚动法预测模型的成果对比。预测结果表明,2011-2015年城市生活污水排放量逐年增加,到2015年我国城市生活污水排放量在499.21-515.19亿t之间,比2010年增加了31.44%～35.65%。
A study of urban life sewage discharge will solve the problem of water pollution in cities and realize the sustainable utiliza- tion of water resources. In this paper, based on the data of urban life sewage discharge from i986 to 2010, a series of different time scales GM （1, 1） models are established to explore the impact on the accuracy of the model, the study shows that the closer the present year, the higher model accuracy of the modeling time scale of 15 year, and the 2011 to 2015 urban life sewage discharge of China is forecast, then the results of the rolling forecast method are compared. According to the performances of the bi-model from 2011 to 2015, it can be found that the life sewage discharge is increasing, and the discharge in 2015 will be between 499.21 hundred million tons and 515.19 hundred million tons, increasing by 31.44% to 35.65% relative to 2010.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2013年第6期32-35,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(E50979023)
水利公益项目(201101009)
