近代农民离村决定因素的再讨论：一个历史计量学的视角

The Determinants of Peasants Leaving the Village in Modern China:A Revised Clinometric Perspective

近代农民离村问题是近代乡村社会研究的重要内容,但现有关于农民离村决定因素的争论依然存在,尚未达成共识。争论的焦点主要围绕以下因素展开,即农民离村是人口对土地的压力还是自然社会环境恶化亦或是近代商业化的结果。为消除争论,本文采用民国时期行政院农村复兴委员会提供的村级微观面板数据,通过历史计量学的方法对农民离村决定因素进行再讨论。研究发现:人口对土地的压力和商业化是导致近代农民离村的根本原因;而自然与社会环境的恶化只在短期内起作用,仅是农民离村的直接原因而非根本原因。

This paper re-examines the determinants of peasants leaving the village in modern China by using a unique panel data set of 3 provinces(Henan,Jiangsu,and Zhejiang) in the Republic of China from 1928-1933.The finding indicates that the ratio of population to land and commercialization are the most important reasons leading to peasants leaving the village in Modern China,disaster and worse social situation only indirectly influenced on peasants leaving the village in short run.