什么驱动了国际资本流动?——兼论APEC国家的人口结构效应被引量：1

What Drives International Capital Flow? An Analysis of Demographic Effect of APEC Members

导出

摘要生命周期理论认为人口年龄结构会影响储蓄投资行为,储蓄投资和经常账户的人口结构效应表现为与抚养负担的反向关系,但实证文献却并没有达成统一意见。文章尝试建立动态面板和静态面板模型,运用系统广义矩(GMM)、混合最小二乘(PooledOLS)、固定效应(FE)、似无相关回归(SUR)等方法对亚太经合组织(APEC)20个国家或地区1993-2010年的面板数据进行了分析。分析发现,经常账户的人口结构效应表现稳健,呈显著负向关系,但储蓄和投资行为的人口结构效应对于样本和方法比较敏感。具体到人口结构内部,老年抚养比效应表现稳健,反向系数在0.26至0.33之间,少年抚养比效应则较为模糊或微弱。 According to life-cycle theory, demographic age structure can affect savings and investment behavior. The effects of demographic structure on savings, investment and current account balance are featured by negative relationships with dependency ratios, but empirical literature has not reached a consensus. This paper tries to construct dynamic and static panel models and employs GMM, pooled OLS, fixed effects and SUR to analyze the panel data of 20 APEC members from 1993 to 2010. It comes to the con- clusion that current account balance is significantly negatively related to de- mographic structure, which is robust, but the effects of demographic struc- ture on savings and investment behavior are sensitive to the sample and methods. For internal demographic structure, the effect of elderly depend- ency ratio is robust with reverse coefficient from 0. 26 to 0. 33, and the effect of youth dependency ration is comparatively vague or weak.

作者朱超林博

机构地区首都经济贸易大学金融学院

出处《财经研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第7期4-15,共12页 Journal of Finance and Economics

基金国家社会科学基金项目<全球百年人口结构变迁对国际资本流动格局的效应研究>(12CJY114) 北京市哲学社会科学规划项目<全球经济再平衡背景下经常账户适度性与逆转冲击效应研究>(11JGC128)

关键词人口结构效应经常账户 APEC 国际资本流动系统广义矩(GMM) 似无相关回归(SUR) demographic effect current account balance APEC inter- national capital flow generalized method of moments （GMM） seeming un- related regression （SUR）

分类号 F11 [经济管理—国际贸易]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献23

1朱超,张林杰.人口结构能解释经常账户平衡吗[J].金融研究,2012(5):30-44. 被引量：35
2Blundell R, Bond S. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 1998,87 (1) : 115- 143.
3Boyd D, Caporale G M, Smith R. Real exchange rate effects on the balance of trade: Cointegration and the marshall-lerner condition[J]. International Journal of FinanceEconomics,2001,6(3) : 187-200.
4Chen K,Imrohoroglu A,Imrohoroglu S. The Japanese saving rate between 1960 and 2000 : Productivity, policy changes, and demographics [ J ]. Economic Theory, 2007, 32(1) ..87-104.
5Chinn M D, Prasad E S. Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: An empirical exploration[J]. Journal of International Econo mics,2003,59(1) .. 47-76.
6Chinn M D, Ito H. Current account balances, financial development and institutions.. Assaying the world "saving glut"[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2007, 26(4) .. 546-569.
7Coale A J, Hoover E M. Population growth and economic development in low-income countries.. A case study of India's prospects[M]. Princeton, N J：Princeton University Press, 1958.
8Dayal-Gulati A, Thimann C. Saving in Southeast Asia and Latin America compared: Searching for policy lessons[R]. IMF Working Paper,No. 110,1997.
9Deaton A, Paxson C. Growth, demographic structure, and national saving in Taiwan[J]. Population and Development Review,2000,26(Supplement) : 141-173.
10Debelle G, Faruqee H. What determines the current account? A cross-sectional and panel approach[R]. IMF Working Paper,No. 58,1996.

二级参考文献33

1Arellano M. and S. Bond, 199l, "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, 58, pp. 277 - 297.
2Arellano M. and O. Bover, 1995, "Another look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error - Component Models," Journal of Econometrics, 68, pp. 29 -51.
3Blanchard O.J. and S. Fischer, 1988, Lecture on Macroeconomics, Published by MIT Press.
4Blundell R. and S. Bond , 1998, "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models, " Journal of Econometrics ,87, pp. 115 - 143.
5Boyd, D. , G. M. Caporale and R. Smith, 2001, "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Mashall - Lerner condition", International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6 (3), pp. 201 - 216.
6Chen K. , A. Imrohoroglu and S. Imrohoroglu, 2007, "The Japanese Saving Rate between 1960 and 2000 : Productivity, Policy Changes, and Demographics," Economic Theory, 32, pp. 87 - 104.
7Chinn M. and H. Ito, 2005, "Current Account, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World Savings Glut, " NBER Working Paper, No. 11761.
8Coale A. and E. Hoover, 1958, Population Growth and Economic Development in Low - Income Countries, Published by Princeton University Press.
9Deaton A. and C. Paxson, 1999, "Growth, Demographic Structure, and National Saving in Taiwan," Provided by Prin- ceton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and Inlemational Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies, in its series Working Papers, No. 224.
10Debelle G. and H. Faruqee, 1996, "What Determines the Current Account? A Cross - Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Paper 96/55 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).