空间相关性与我国区域经济增长动态收敛的理论与实证分析——基于1953—2010年面板数据的经验证据

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Spatial Correlation and Dynamic Convergence of Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from the Panel Data from 1953 to 2010

文章通过建立空间面板数据模型,将空间相关性纳入分析框架,分析了我国1953-2010年地区经济增长的绝对收敛性以及考虑财政政策与人力资本影响后的条件收敛性。实证分析表明,我国地区发展的空间相关性逐年增强,成为影响经济增长的重要因素;在整个研究期间内,我国经济增长不存在绝对收敛性,期初经济水平与经济增长率呈正相关关系;但在引入财政政策与人力资本两个影响因子后,我国地区经济增长存在条件收敛性。积极的财政政策与增加人力资本投资能够促进落后地区经济跨越式发展,从而强化经济增长的条件收敛程度。

By constructing a spatial panel data model, this paper intro- duces spatial correlation into the analytical framework, and analyzes the ab- solute convergence of regional economic growth and also conditional conver- gence in consideration of the effects of fiscal policy and human capital in China from 1953 to 2010. The empirical analysis shows that spatial correla- tion of regional development in China increases year by year and is an impor- tant factor affecting economic growth; during the sample period, there is no absolute convergence of economic growth in China, and initial economic level is positively correlated with economic growth rate; after the introduction of fiscal policy and human capital, there is conditional convergence of economic growth in China. Active fiscal policy and the increase in human capital investment can pro- mote the leaping economic development in backward areas, thus strengthening the degree of conditional convergence of economic growth.