塔里木河干流径流量变化与太阳黑子活动的关系

Relationship between annual runoff of the mainstream of Tarim River and sunspots activity

本文运用Morlet小波分析方法,分析了1957-2011年塔里木河干流年径流量与太阳黑子相对数的关系。结果表明,55年间塔里木河干流年径流量和太阳黑子相对数都呈减小的趋势。塔里木河干流年径流量变化存在4 a、8 a、18 a、21 a左右的主周期。在8~9 a和18~21 a尺度上年径流量序列与太阳黑子相对数序列具有相近的主周期。年径流量变化所表现的4年主周期与太阳黑子活动关系不大;18~21 a主周期特征应主要受太阳黑子活动的影响;8 a主周期也与太阳黑子活动显著相关,但由于受到人类活动的强烈干扰,致使在20世纪80年代以后两者关系被扰乱。预测2012-2020年间塔里木河干流将处于枯水期,年径流量的平均值约为35×108~40×108m3。

In this paper,we used Morlet wavelet transform method to analyze the relationship between annual runoff in the mainstream of the Tarim River and sunspots activity dring 1957-2011.Results indicated that both annual runoff of the mainstream of Tarim River and number of sunspots were decreased dring 1957-2011.There were main periods of 4 a,8 a,18 a,and 21 a in annual runoff.On the scales of 8~9 a and 18~21 a,the annual runoff and number of sunspots had similar primary cycles.Sunspots activity had almost no effect on the characteristics of annual runoff change of the 4 a cycle,but the characteristics of the 18~21 a cycle were mainly influenced by sunspots activity.The annual runoff change of 8 a primary cycle was once closely related to sunspots activity,but the correlation was disrupted after 1980 due to strong interferences of human activities.This paper forecasts that 2012-2020 may be a withered water period for annual runoff in the mainstream of Tarim Riverin,and the average annual runoff may be about 35×^-40×10^8m3.