1990-2011年山东省旅游节庆的时空变异特征及机理

Temporal-spatial variability of tourism festivals and its mechanism in Shandong Province during 1990-2011

以山东省为研究区域,运用半变异函数、克里格空间插值等地统计学分析方法,分析了1990、1999、2005、2011年4个时间点上旅游节庆活动的时空分布规律、结构特征及变异性,并建立了拟合模型。结果表明:①旅游节庆数量空间不均衡显著,总体上呈现出"东高西低"的"三级阶梯状"分布格局;②空间结构特征明显,正负相关并存,并随滞后距离的增加,正相关性削弱,负相关性增强;③与1990年相比,2011年基台值增加了20.61倍,变程值由115.5 km增至335 km,结构方差比则由69%下降至26%,随机性因素的影响减弱,而结构性因素的作用增强;④所有方向的分维数值呈下降趋势,其空间差异性增大,且全方向和东—西方向的差异性最大,其余方向相对均衡,其发展空间格局的板块状异向性分布特征明显;⑤经济发展水平、旅游供给能力、交通可达性是引起山东省旅游节庆差异演化规律的3个主要因素。

In this paper,by using geostatistical methods,such as semi-variance function and Kriging spatial interpolator method,we analyzed temporal-spatial distribution pattern,structural characteristics and variability of tourism festivals in Shandong Province in 1990,1999,2005 and 2011,and established suitable models.Based on quantitative analyses,we made the conclusions as follows：（1） Spatial distribution of the numbers of tourism festivals is significantly imbalanced,showing an overall ＂high in the east,low in the west＂ pattern with the shape of a three-step ladder.（2） There are clear spatial structural characteristics in terms of correlations of the events,with positive and negative correlations existing simultaneously.When the separation distance gets longer,the positive spatial correlation decreases,and in the meantime negative correlation increases.（3） Compared to 1990,the value of partial sill increased by 20.61 times in 2011;variable range increased from 115.5 km to 335 km;structural variance ratio decreased from 69% to 26%;the impact of random factors weakened,but the role of structural factors strengthened.（4） In terms of spatial fractal dimension,the values trended down and the spatial variations increased in all directions.The most significant variation was in the east-west direction;the rest of the directions were relatively balanced,showing a spatial development pattern with the characteristics of plate-like and anisotropic distribution.（5） Three main factors contribute to the evolvement of developmental variability of tourism festivals in Shandong Province： level of economic development,tourism supply capacity,and transportation accessibility.