碳税的就业“双重红利”效应研究

Research on Employment Double Dividend Effects of Carbon Tax

碳税是减少碳排放的一种重要经济手段。文章通过分析碳税对就业的影响机制,构建了一个体现中国经济和就业结构特征的资源环境可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,研究碳税政策对劳动就业的短期和长期影响效应,验证中国是否存在产生就业"双重红利"的条件。结果表明,总体上而言中国就业需求趋于下降,但对不同就业群体的影响有所差异。假如在开征碳税的同时选择合适的碳税循环方式,就有可能实现就业的"双重红利"。

Carbon tax is an important economic means to reduce carbon emissions. Through the analysis of mechanism of carbon tax impact on employment, the paper constructs a resources environment computable general equilibrium （CGE） model that reflects the characteristics of Chinese economic and employment structure, studies effect of carbon tax policy on employment in the short-term and long-term, and verifies the conditions of existence of employment double dividend in China. The results show that the employment demand generally tends to decrease, but the different employment groups are affected by different. If the suitable carbon tax circulation mode is selected at the same time, it is possible to achieve double dividend.