基于层次分析法的复杂配电网健康诊断研究

A study of health diagnosis for complex distribution grid based on analytic hierarchy process

介绍了复杂配电网系统健康诊断和评估的概念,在将复杂配电网运行健康状况与人的健康状态相类比的基础上,利用健康指标体系描述复杂配电网的性能。从主、次作用因子,内、外影响因素等方面对指标进行筛选,建立了一套衡量复杂配电网健康状况的定量参考系,利用层次分析法和模糊理论对该指标体系进行诊断分析,找出系统自身差距和变化态势,对已造成或可能发生的病症异常给出响应动作建议。通过某地10kV配电网的实例分析,从小时间尺度上系统的健康评估和大时间尺度上的健康趋势预测两方面对该诊断方法的有效性进行了验证。

The concept of Complex Distribution Grid （CDG） health diagnosis and evaluation is introduced. Health index system is used to describe performance of CDG based on the analogy between CDG health status and human health state. The index is screened by considering primary-secondary effect as well as internal and external influence factors. A quantitative reference frame is established to measure its health state. Its gap and changing trend are found by diagnostic analysis of the indicator system through the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Theory, and the suggestions on the anomalies are given out. The effectiveness of the diagnostic method is verified by analyzing certain real 10 kV distribution network including health assessment of the system in small time scales and health trend prediction in large time scales.