基于SD-CA-GIS的环境累积效应时空分析模型及应用

Analysis and assessment model of environmental cumulative effects based on the integration of SD, CA and GIS methods and its application

环境累积效应分析强调环境变化的时空放大作用,突出环境要素之间的时空交互作用,从而对环境分析方法的能力提出了挑战.因此,本文在对传统环境分析方法归纳、分析和总结的基础上,以地理信息系统(GIS)为基础平台,集成系统动力学(SD)和元胞自动机(CA)的优点,建立了能够分析时间累积、空间累积效应的SD-CA-GIS模型.以山西潞安矿区作为研究区域,在分析矿区社会、经济、工程和环境等因子之间时空交互作用的基础上,构建了SD-CA-GIS模型.考虑到矿区土地利用变化的特殊性,从影响矿区土地利用变化的驱动因子出发,预测和模拟了矿区2006—2030年土地利用变化的累积状况.结果发现,由于煤炭资源开采等人类干扰活动的影响,研究区在研究时段内,工矿用地、居民用地和交通用地呈现累积性增加,其它土地利用类型累积性减少.同时,由于不同阶段人类活动干扰的种类和强度变化,使得不同土地利用类型的空间扩展变化存在一定的差异.上述研究表明,该模型能够同时考虑时间累积效应和空间累积效应的动态变化,能为环境累积效应的分析和评价提供有效的帮助.

Cumulative effects analysis underlines the spatiotemporal amplification of environmental change and highlights the spatiotemporal interactions among environmental factors, which challenges the traditional environmental analysis methods. According to the characteristics of complex ecosystem, the paper analyzed and summarized the traditional environmental analysis methods. As a basic platform, GIS was applied to integrate SD and CA to build the SD-CA-GIS model, which can be used to analyze the environmental cumulative effects both in temporal and spatial scales. Taking Lu＇an mining area as a case study, SD-CA-GIS model was constructed based on analyzing the spatiotemporal interactions among social, economic, engineering and environmental factors. Considering the particularity of land use changes in coal mine area, this study applied SD-CA-GIS model to forecast and simulate the cumulative status of land use changes from 2006 to 2030. Areas of industrial and mining land, residential land and transportation land presented significantly increasing trends. In comparison, other lands was declining. In terms of the changes of type and intensity of human activities, different land types had different spatial expansion characteristics. Results showed that SD-CA-GIS model is feasible and effective in analyzing the spatiotemporal dynamic changes of environmental factors, which can provide effective information for environmental cumulative effects analysis and assessment.