预期、收入差距与中国城市房价租金“剪刀差”之谜

Expectation,Income Inequality and the Puzzle of City's Housing Price to Rent Scissors in China

2003年以来,中国城市房地产销售价格相对租赁价格的更快上涨,形成了城市房价租金"剪刀差",使房价泡沫固化。针对中国城市房价租金"剪刀差"之谜,本文从居民住房买租选择机制入手构建了购房者与租房者的住房消费选择模型,运用2000—2010年中国35个大中城市的面板数据和动态面板系统GMM估计方法做了实证检验。研究发现,由于居民住房买租选择更倾向于购房居住,促使城市房价租金比升高。在适应性预期下,房价租金比下降;在理性预期下,房价租金比上升。城市居民收入差距扩大是引发城市房价租金比升高的主要因素。在所有影响因素中,居民人均可支配收入的变化对城市房价租金比变动的影响力最大。因此,完善收入分配制度和不断降低收入差距,加强房价预期管理,大力培育住房租赁市场,引导居民住房理性消费,抑制房地产投资和投机需求,是降低城市房价租金比,防止房价泡沫膨胀和破灭的重要措施。

The city＇s housing sale prices has increased rapidly than rent prices and the bubble of housing price becomes stably in China since 2003, which is called the Puzzle of City＇s Housing Price to Rent Scissors. This paper constructs house buyer＇s and renter＇s consumption choice theory model based on resident＇s tenure choice mechanism, empirically tests and explains the puzzle by dynamic panel model System-GMM using the panel data of 35 large and middle cities in China. The results demonstrate that residents are prone to buy house in tenure choice and that will boost the housing price to rent. Besides, the housing price to rent will decrease under adaptive expectation and increase under rational expectation. The increasing income gap among urban residents is the main factor to promote the housing price to rent. Take into account all the factor, the per-disposable income of urban residents has the most magnificent impact on the housing price to rent. Therefore, in order to cut down city＇s housing price to rent ratio and avoid the housing price bubble swelling and smashing, it needs to improve the income distribution system and reduce the income gap continuously, strengthen the management of housing price expectation, cultivate rental housing market, guide residents＇ reasonable housing consumption, and suppress the real estate investment and speculation.