ENSO现象和陕西省夏粮丰歉年景的关系

The Relationship between ENSO and Harvests of Summer Crops in Shaanxi Province

分析 ENSO现象对陕西省天气气候的影响可知 ,在厄尔尼诺事件发生时 ,当年陕西省秋季到次年春季多出现连旱 ,次年秋季降水较多。因此 ,陕西省夏粮产量在厄尔尼诺发生的次年易偏歉 ,第 3年多偏丰。同时和厄尔尼诺事件相联系的南方涛动和印度季风雨的变化对陕西省的夏粮丰歉年景也有一定的影响。这样可以提前 1～ 2年应用

In this peper, we analysed the influence of ENSO on synoptic climate in Shaanxi Province. The results show that if ENSO happens, droughts will occur in autumn in the current year and next spring, the amount precipitation in next fall will be rather much. So when ENSO happens the yield of summer crops will below the average in the next year, and that will above the average in the third year. Besides, Southern Oscillation and the rainfall of Indian monsoon relative to EL Nino also influence the harvests of summer crops. Ahear of 1～2 years, we can comprehensively forecast the harvests of summer crops by using ENSO data.