城市化与经济发展的关系模式——对钱纳里模型的参数重估

Relational pattern of urbanization and economic development:The parameter revaluation of Chenery's Model

摘要：以钱纳里模型为基础，基于1990-2009年20年间世界149个国家或地区的经验数据，采用双对数模型，引入城市化自身时间序列变量，回归了城市化与经济发展水平之间关系的标准型式。研究表明：城市化与经济发展水平的定量关系型式在过去50年发生了显著变化，钱纳里模型中标准发展型式已不能直接用来比较当前城市化与经济发展的关系；1990-2009年间，人均GNI值位于1000～10000美元区间时，城市化率从17．78％变化至60．36％，关系匹配值也相应变化，但是城市化率的饱和值仍然保持在75％左右；较小人口规模国家的城市化受经济发展水平影响大于大国和中等国家。

On the basis of Chenery＇s Model and empirical data of 149 countries and regions during the period 1990-2009, the paper uses double logarithmic model and introduces the urbanizing time series variable, and finishes the regression analysis of the normal form of the relation between urbanization and economic development. Research shows that significant changes of the quantitative relation between urbanization and economic developments have taken place in the past 50 years, and the normal form of Chenery＇s Model is no longer capable of making a comparative analysis of them. Besides, during 1990 to 2009, with the per capita GNI between 1000 and 10000 US dollars, the urbanization rate changed from 17.78% to 60.36, and the relational matching data changed accordingly, while the urbanization rate remains at around 75%. Furthermore, urbanization in countries with smaller population sizes was likely to be affected by economic development compared with those with big and medium-size population.